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Post by kurtinsc on Aug 24, 2014 12:29:45 GMT 1
Not going in this past stage pretty much eliminated that rider from the GC I think.Yup, we can see if you want to win a big Tour you need to attack almost on every stage. Like we see i dont go for general standings, the random (luck) is too big and i dont want to play at fitness. In this way is posible that Tours.Cycle.Club to finish with 2-3 cyclists in top 5 at the final standings, i dont like this (because probably in this way will be on place 1 on our group) but i cant do anything to change this. from today i have only 50 cyclists probably in few days i will have 45 cyclists but is very difficult to let go to anyone. I'm a bit disapointed that Gael Lacroux win today in front of Cardei, because Cardei was played at 100% , have 94% before race {have save fitness} but the result is normal because Cardei have low sprint, Cardei was trained only for general standings , have very good skills in all skills without sprint. Maybe was better for me to play him at 100% in other kind of race. Even Spain could be won by a polivalent cyclist, normal for me was to be win by a super good mountain cyclist. The thing with the long tours is any time you attack with one of your lesser cyclists but leave your GC guy in the peloton, you take a risk. You have to hope that someone else isn't sending someone in an attack and will be pulling the peloton. Otherwise the break gets BIG minutes because we don't have a strategy where you attack with one guy but your helpers keep the break to a "reasonable" distance. Lacroux was built for this stage to be honest, and while he didn't go at 100%, he had 98% fitness. If Cardei was at 90% health... .9 * 1.0 = 90% effective while Lacroux was at .98 * .83 = 81% effective. Cardei had a small effectiveness advantage... but a flat stage ending with a mountain with little downhill suits Lacroux perfectly.
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Post by rarau on Aug 24, 2014 13:32:21 GMT 1
Cardei was at 94% not 90% And Cardei have for sure better downhill then all other cyclists from Spain Maybe this is the last week for me on place 1 1. Luptatorii din Rarau 12 1 0 2 3607 2. Tours.Cycle.Club 2 5 1 1 3545 3. Warner Bros Racing 10 3 2 3 2976 4. The Mothers of Invention 10 0 2 1 2890 5. WC VroOom 15 2 5 4 2776 6. Snake Milano 13 2 0 2 2753 7. Nattramn 11 1 4 1 2476 8. Pegasus Cycling 4 1 1 1 1654 Today i hope that Taborda will win this stage but it wasnt to be I'm disapointed about Lampreia was first before today race and i play him at 100% but he lost time on mountain even he attack in the begininng. Fava even injured finish on place 7 From where appear Doundna? Doudna wins all . I think that Doudna have good downhill skill.
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Post by kurtinsc on Aug 24, 2014 17:50:39 GMT 1
Today i hope that Taborda will win this stage but it wasnt to be I'm disapointed about Lampreia was first before today race and i play him at 100% but he lost time on mountain even he attack in the begininng. Fava even injured finish on place 7 From where appear Doundna? Doudna wins all . I think that Doudna have good downhill skill. Doudna winning the stage wasn't a huge surprise for me... but winning the GC was a surprise. I thought it was out of reach. Doudna's downhill is only 3. The thing is only two people attacked on the first point (Doudna and Fidsky). That gave him a minute at the second attack point... on hill... which he has some ability (even with a flat). He got a small lead there (less than a minute) and essentially held it the rest of the race. I don't think he would have won if some of the better climbers attacked with him at the first point. I'm not sure injury impacts the performance on the stage they get hurt on. If it does I'm at a loss for where he finished. Fava went all out stage 2. While he has a nice mountain skill, I wouldn't have expected him to finish 7th on this stage even without injury impacting his performance. If that was a negative as well then I have no clue.
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Post by rarau on Aug 24, 2014 21:48:13 GMT 1
I speak too much about injury and about Cardei and now Cardei is injured The good thing is that i already play him at 100% The bad thing is that i wanted to won another race from Spain with him. So? Is very difficult to win a big tour. Before Spain i was thinked to play him at general standings but knowing his mountain (is no awesome) I considered that Cardei could win only Italy and France. Like i said before i considered that only TT count in this game. All that weeks when i train sprint skill are weeks lost for my cyclists.I hope soon a lot of cyclists will reach 12-14 TT and in this way they will have huge wages. I have only 1 cyclist with 10 TT and in the rest only 8 , 7 or less 560 5 1 10 st 11 bal 10 is relatively young 22-25 years (i dont wanted to tell his age to not knowing about what cyclist i speak ) what you think about him? looks nice or not? how much $$$ deserve on transfer list?
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Post by kurtinsc on Aug 24, 2014 23:35:24 GMT 1
I don't have anyone at double digits in TT. I have 2 at 9, 2 at 8 and a lot of 7's and 6's. I tend to think people are overestimating TT a bit now. You have to have a certain amount, but I'm not certain there's not a point of diminishing returns.
I'm not a good judge of value of riders. I pretty much only shop for young riders who are good value for the most part... only once did I ever really bid heavy on a rider... and that was Lacroux who I bought for 3.3 million. At that time his mountain score was near the top for what peloton had... but I couldn't win much with him. Now that he's incredibly well cross-trained the investment is starting to pay off. Every other signing has been below a million. And I've messed up on plenty of them. Many of my own riders have surprised me when I sold them (both in good ways and bad).
My thought is that there would be a big difference in price between 22 and 25. At 25, he's pretty much locked in as a TT specialist. TT has the most value when paired with mountain, and he's got a 0 in that. If he's 25, he'd be getting too old before his mountain would be high enough to make him useful. At 22 that avenue is open and he can be helpful in TTT's and ITT's while he progresses in mountain. If he's 25, I'd probably stop bidding at 200K, though you could probably get more for him. At 22 it would be more like 600K for me... but as I said you might get considerably more.
I have no clue about how the market at large works. I think many people buy differently than I do.
I also don't try to make a profit on the transfer market anymore. When I have a guy I'm done with, I leave him on my team until his contract is about to expire and sell him then. By that time his skills have fallen behind for his age and he doesn't have nearly as much value... which is fine with me. I get a good domestique while he rides out his contract and I take another rider capable of beating my team in races out of the mix. I'm 14 million in the hole with transfers over the life of my team.
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Post by evild on Aug 25, 2014 16:17:36 GMT 1
oh god, i made a terrible rookie mistake... i thought empord ended today. I saved fidsky to go for stage and mountain on todays's race, untill i noticed that it actually ended yesterday. Bummer. That will cost me some earnings:-s
i agree with kurtinsc that people overrate TT a bit. Like him i dont have any guy that has double digits in TT. But i already got 15 wins. TT is essential, but it needs to be combined with other skills.
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Post by rarau on Aug 26, 2014 12:54:03 GMT 1
By the way, after today race, all cyclists from our group have 99% fitness? crazy In this way no chance for me for general standings . If he's 25, I'd probably stop bidding at 200K, though you could probably get more for him. At 22 it would be more like 600K for me... but as I said you might get considerably more.with this prices i dont sell anyone I paid for 17-18 years cyclists 300-700.000 and to sell one of my best cyclists with 200k ? no way my transfer history bought 19.000.000 sell 30.000.000 so i have + 11 mil $ When i cyclist have few weeks i renegociate his contract why to sell him ?!? Nightbiker have low cyclists with huge TT in this way won my 4 group, win his 3 group and now is in division 2 and next season on division 1. Now have results => money => bought the best cyclists from transfer list.
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Post by kurtinsc on Aug 26, 2014 23:27:46 GMT 1
Again, I don't pay more than a million unless a cyclist is already at a top level. I've bought 18 year olds for 500K or more pretty frequently... but even at full training at 21 their value is pretty darn low once they can't ride in Junior races anymore. In fact for all cyclists the age range from 21-25 or so has little value. They don't get to be able to start winning races until around 25.
I sell off most of my Juniors at 21... only keeping really promising ones. I tend to look for promising 23 and 24 year olds to replace them as I won't have to hold them for 3-4 seasons in order to get value. And many 23-24 year olds haven't quite gotten the stats that demand top prices but can develop that way on my team.
My entire signing strategy right now is for 23-26 year olds for less than a million or 18 year old guys for junior races. I wouldn't pay over a million for a young guy (under 24) unless he was already well cross trained with a couple of 7+ skills as well... basically only a year or two away.
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Post by kurtinsc on Aug 27, 2014 1:51:42 GMT 1
As for this last stage with everyone at 99%... I was very happy that happened. Only 3 teams had a rider successfully attack which meant everyone but those 3 teams was pulling. As I sent a rider, I wasn't pulling and was worried a GC contender would go and get big time. I was disappointed Rumler couldn't take it, but he needs a bit more flat to be able to take stages more regularly. He's one of two original cyclists I still have from when my team was created... and I NEARLY have him decent.
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Post by kurtinsc on Aug 30, 2014 0:18:03 GMT 1
Seabra took the stage I brought him for. I loved seeing a stage like this. First 3 attack points are all different terrains. Nice mix of various terrains with a focus on hill. Perfect stage for him. Even more pleasing was seeing Lacroux finish in the third group with a low effort, single attack point attack. I don't know if he'll withstand the ITT with the lead, but he's looking good so far.
I'm picking Poiraud to win the next stage. 97% fitness plus Nattram fitness training = full effort out of him. Interesting to see how much he gains.
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Post by rarau on Aug 31, 2014 12:58:16 GMT 1
Today the most difficult U21 race from last seasons -what I dont like? That a cyclist with 3 falls finish this stage on place 3 -the big surprise?? Results (View absolute times) 1. Lubach 0 1 06:33:38 The Mothers of Invention 2. Dahan 0 0 00:00:21 Warner Bros Racing 3. Van Spanje 0 3 00:00:48 The Mothers of Invention Lubach and Van Spanje INJURED after today race I dont understand how The Mothers of Invention have 4 cyclist in top 10 Have a wonderfull captain? LS 5 ?!? Dont think so Or maybe attack only once with all his cyclists? Where is the peloton? after place 8 or or 11 or 16? What is your opinion? I think peloton is Gayot and Eymael (place 6 and 7) Or i'm wrong? If Gayot and Eymael don't attack today then i think here is the peloton
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Post by rarau on Aug 31, 2014 13:19:37 GMT 1
Before last week : 1. Luptatorii din Rarau 12 1 0 2 3686 2. Tours.Cycle.Club 2 5 1 1 3602 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. Warner Bros Racing 11 3 2 3 3192 4. The Mothers of Invention 12 0 2 1 3173 5. WC VroOom 16 2 5 4 2901 6. Snake Milano 13 2 0 2 2799 7. Nattramn 12 1 4 1 2648 8. Pegasus Cycling 4 1 1 1 1708 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9. The Nikeboys 2 0 0 0 725 10. tyson 0 0 0 0 432 11. De Stovebuzen 0 0 0 0 195 12. ABP9 0 0 0 0 0 even all season i was on place 1 i'm not sure i will finish on place 1 Not so good results on last weeks , maybe some wrong tactics Why not so many points? Because from 5 cyclists 1 is captain => no chances for points and for example in Spain i have 1 injured so ... only 3 cyclists for points. Extremly good results for Tours.Cycle.Club on 3 days tours and big tours, always with 3 cyclists in top 5 or near. If Tours have juniors now was on place 1. Like i post in some other post i win a lot of points on juniors and in this way i could be on place 1. Like that saying/adage/byword "Count to be on place 1 ONLY at finish" I hope to have some nice results on last 4 races but i'm not sure
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Post by evild on Sept 2, 2014 15:56:38 GMT 1
I knew you would play seabra in that stage kurtinsc, in fact i was planning to join him with van de weghe and go one on one for the green jersey. However thomson his injury forced me to change tactics. Since i already had some points, i saved up some fitness and went for the mountain jersey. With success. It was not the best mountain guy in this vuelta, but i made the right choices.
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Post by rarau on Sept 2, 2014 17:38:38 GMT 1
You are right was not the best mountain cyclist Today Laloux attacked only on 3 points on 4/7/9 but after points 4/5 he was already number 1 I was impressed by him. Parasca better on all skills , without mountain, then Laloux finished only on place 5 even he attacked for 5 times on 2/4/7/8/9 I was hoped, before Spain, on better general standings. But Tours crush me/us. I was hoped that today all general cyclists to lost at least 5 minutes from Laloux and Parasca. With 1/2 mountain races more on Spain the tour was only for me Tomorrow Tours will be on place 1. I hope to regain place 1 till Sunday. I hope in better results in last 4 races of this season.
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Post by kurtinsc on Sept 2, 2014 21:39:25 GMT 1
I knew you would play seabra in that stage kurtinsc, in fact i was planning to join him with van de weghe and go one on one for the green jersey. However thomson his injury forced me to change tactics. Since i already had some points, i saved up some fitness and went for the mountain jersey. With success. It was not the best mountain guy in this vuelta, but i made the right choices. None of my mountain guys are very good to be honest. Comes from never having trained mountain since I started... whatever mountain skill I have has been purchased. It will be good next season when I get a new trainer to actually be able to bump up Lacroux's mountain skill... his other skills are great for a GC guy... but this past stage shows he's a bit off the front when it comes to climbing. Pretty cool that (barring disaster) he'll be a double GT winner without being a top flight climber. Seabra is going to be interesting for me though with the new trainer. I'm planning to go with Flat/Mountain/Sprint for my trainer... and I have no idea what the best way to train him would be.
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