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Post by naspa on Jan 16, 2018 13:41:04 GMT 1
Yes, congratz to Veen. And this of course means the win in race 8 is for Belluzzo :-) Tomorrow I guess Naz en Buitenhuis will dominate. Maybe a surprise by a not mentioned rider? I will keep a close eye on the 27 year old Leloup (Pedale) - probably not matured yet, but still high on fitness and I estimate him to be a good climber. And we will have to start to consider the riders of Carapaz. Charbonneau was on the attack today, and Bedos seems to go for a top 10 stop in GC. Banciu and Welsschen did great taking some time and valuable points for MJ and PJ. It is interesting that the tactics of team Melres today was saving fitness. It seems it was worth taking the risk. Naz ended in the big group. Brassard lost a small minute on his competitors. However, looking at the race instead of the results first, might have been bad for the ElGringo 's heart. 00:35:22 Naz can not follow the peloton 00:30:37 WATCH OUT! Oh my god, Naz takes a bad fall 00:14:51 The peloton's pace is too fast for Brassard, he gets behind
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Post by naspa on Jan 16, 2018 8:27:24 GMT 1
Thanks piero . Getting old is affecting all of us :-) You can try the improved youthscout. Wages are since last august much lower. Do not spend too much money on having him highly skilled in the start, but be sure having him skilled enough to attract nice 18-year-olds when the next season starts. So back to the Giro. 5 stages this week and a lot of riders being tired all ready. We will end with a ITT victory of Tirlea and with congratulating Naz for being nr. 1 in the time and mountain rankings. And maybe even with the sprint jersey on his shoulders! Tomorrow starts the serious climbing. Today might be the last chance for some the more flat/hill-orientated riders to get a victory. But it will not be easy, there are two nasty small mountains to climb. While race 8 offers still offers some chances for the real hill experts. So today is for Bredael again? Or is it more suited for Veen or Belluzzo? Too hilly for Paskila? Will we see a surprise attack? Maybe Broers (Ngogo)? While also Agnelli is starting at 100% fitness. Same as Venturato, but they are more likely to pick a day with more mountains. And what will the GC-men do? Will they be in front of the race? Or will they save their energy for the real climbing? Quillers team seems the most tactical options. With Banciu and Welsshen firmly in top 5, they might want to try to get get hold on the green Jersey as well. Pollyjeans Buitenhuis will fight for his pink jersey, where a second place seems realistic. But of course. Flat tires, falls... a few of those or an injury, and all can be totally different.
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Post by naspa on Jan 14, 2018 22:11:19 GMT 1
My business is done in the giro. De France had his moments. Van Nes is tested. He will get there. He is an allrounder who misses a bit of edge- or a better mood. Goselink is an unpolished diamond. Not sure what he will be, I hope a true classic-hill-expert, but for now he does now better than expected. No targets anymore. Kvoessen might make it second or third in the youth rankings if I maximize his chances. But well, he is only 23 and not so much trained as Brassard - whose TT and mountain is obviously far better. So a boring week for me. 6 days time to think about my plans in the Dauphine.
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Post by naspa on Jan 14, 2018 13:10:50 GMT 1
Today was a bit as expected. Although I hoped that Ciobo could do better. Happy with 3d place GC of Lameira and the white jersey for Herregodts. Congrats to Stroh with the day victory -who even finished 4th in GC- and Bienert with GC.
But is now the question answered what kind of rider would win this race? To me it seems down-hill was decisive. Stroh gone solo straight away from first attack point, and Ciobo lost most time -also because a fall- in the descending parts.
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Post by naspa on Jan 14, 2018 9:34:48 GMT 1
I think u guys forget something about sprint... Today you had to give attack orders, in a real sprintrace u giving him 'sprint orders'... Because of that i believe that sprint still does something at the end but not in full strength. Also mountain was much more important because of the percentage (as in real life so good coding!!!!) To my opinion the attack-orders are executed with using sprint skills to get away from the peloton. I also believed sprint does something at the end in the races. But I start to doubt that. Or is there still an effect, but is it very light because of 10% climbing? But it was quite clear that in this case in the end the mountain skills were far more important. (And I agree, that is good programming.)
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Post by naspa on Jan 13, 2018 19:20:50 GMT 1
@ab. Do you think sprint skills where of no influence at all at the finsh because of zero flat km's in the race - like ik assume it would be in a normal sprint race? Or was sprint of lesser influence because of the 10% mountain-climb?
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Post by naspa on Jan 13, 2018 16:03:53 GMT 1
Ximenes did sort of as expected. He attacked at both points and was in the first group before the final sprint begun. So far so good. His climbing skill are ok, but a few point below par. -for the expected competition I hoped his above average sprinting skills would compensate that - I reckoned sprint would be same important as climbing today. And I now have learned that is not true :-)
You can also tell this by the fact that the best climber, Timm, was second at the attack point -but still was the strongest on top of Mount veni-vidi-Fuji. It all might have been different if the climbing percentage would have been less, I presume. Now that Timm changed his mind and fully attacked today, a third place for Lameira is a realistic possibility. Although we have to see how much time Schuckmann and Carberry will lose tomorrow.
Bienert did it very smart by taking it easy today - time differences were not so big. At 89% he is now not only favourite for GC, but can also take stage 3. But Hingant is still there and willof course try to get as high as possible on the podium. Bienert might want to take the green jersey as well. Mountain jersey seems to go to Carbery - I do not see a realistic scenario that any other rider will pass his 20 points.
So tomorrow Bienert will fight Ciobotaru, Stroh, Luz and De Gryze and dark horse Matejek (Pedale) for the stage-win. (Pietrok? He was cheeky and disobeyed the orders of his manager and try to impress his fans by going full effort climbing Mt Fuji today.).
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Post by naspa on Jan 12, 2018 21:45:03 GMT 1
ElGringo. Yes, well, the young Stroh that I've competed against some 3 seasons ago in 2:2 has either developed his climbing skills or I was quite wrong in my estimations :-) It will be very interesting to see what will happen tomorrow. I will ask Ximenes to give it a try. I will not be mad neither disappointed if he fails to get in top 5. About Lameira. I think you overestimate him. Lameira is a pretty nice all rounder. But I think he does not have enough climbing skills to be in top 3. Today was probably the stage that best suited tim. Tomorrow and on Sunday, the medical crew of my team will wait him at the finish with ice and oxygen. Because he is one of the giants in my team - 208cm tall and 101 kilo of weight.
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Post by naspa on Jan 12, 2018 13:36:28 GMT 1
quiller . Well done! Bienert is favorite with Hingant for GC.(Pietrok for race 3?) Timm seems also set for GC, probably for place 3? Or can next two races cause a landshift? Even Ab Normaal seems not sure what the impact of the next two races will be. Congrats to @pedalebolognese again! It was an excellent plan to set the climber Carberry to attack today. At the age of 34 he takes his 3d stage victory - it starts to be time to win a couple of races! And 20 mountain points in the pocket will be good for a high ranking! Frustration with upcoming talent Schuckmann, who came pretty close in the last stroke up hill. A few skill-points in climbing seemed to be the decisive factor today. And an excellent result for the young gun, DonLeavy (Melres, he is Australian, what else?); place 5. Yet, he is 26 years of age. Too old for the white jersey. Herregodts (Naspa) seems to want to claim it. So, with some famous climbers going for GC, is there a mountain specialist in the pack that can beat them tomorrow in the 12km short 10% climb on mt. Fuji? Van Roy of Pedale? Or a younger guy. Brantenaar and the DeGryze of Ab - I noticed them a few seasons ago and they seem more hill/all-round to me. But yet, if a youngster can do well, it is tomorrow, as only 3 of all primary skills matter. No flat, no hill, no down-hill needed.
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Post by naspa on Jan 11, 2018 17:03:13 GMT 1
Ab Normaal. Japan? It's puzzling me. Lot of twenty-somethings that I do not know so well. I see you bring a lot of mountain skilled riders. Probably one for every day. Timm is one of the favorites for race 2. He might have to beat Hingant of Polly Jean if he is not set for GC. Melres brings Stroh, but I know of him as a skilled flat rider. Maybe give it a try for a stage victory in race 1? Pedale brings Van Roy, who can do well in GC or maybe content for a day victory. Berdios is starting with a pretty strong selection. I would say Luz is one of the favorites for a stage -most likely stage 3. Rebiere maybe for stage 1 of GC. Condro seem more a flat guy as well, maybe for stage 1. Meslin maybe not only leader but also set for race 2? Naspa: still considering options. For now I am thinking about setting Lameira for GC, give Ximenes a try for a stage victory (both happy with top 5).. One thing is sure, although lacking some fitness, I think race 3 is very suited for Ciobotaru, must be able to be in top 3.
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Post by naspa on Jan 11, 2018 13:11:17 GMT 1
Trotz was the best sprinter today on flat. But he lost it in the climbs. Mensschaert and Bohn did as expected. Bohn maybe even better -solid place in the first group. However, the experienced Defrance accomplished his mission, winning a ride. I have to admit, I was far from sure if he would pass the climbs in the first group. And his fitness was not optimal, but it was either today or in a hilly ride next week. I think I chose wisely. Buitenhuis keeps the pink. Naz third place is amazing. Winning some time on Banciu again. Now Naz is second in rankings. Banciu third, still wearing the Polka dots. But Defrance will wear the green jersey now for another long weekend, while Kvoesschen (Naspa) en Bresou (Berdios) pass Brassard (Melres) in the youngster rankings.
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Post by naspa on Jan 11, 2018 0:32:23 GMT 1
I would say a bit more a hill guy with good mountain. The steepness of the mountain is not high - 3 strokes of 5km of 7%, only one of them set attack point. Start and finish are hill.
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Post by naspa on Jan 10, 2018 13:30:17 GMT 1
Yes, not totally unexpected. But still, with those mountains, is was not a 100% sure bet. Smit takes third place - as he was one of the riders Ngogo saving his effort. Vandekerkhove did pretty good job, taking place before Naz, who took an easy 5th place on 75% effort. And another small victory for Pollyjean, Buitenhuis finishes as 6th, losing almost 3 minutes on Naz, but still good enough to take over the pink jersey from Banciu. Banciu keeps the point jersey and seems for now to be the only one who might keep Naz from the mountain jersey. In the youth rankings, the big favorite Brassard (Melres) is now pulling the ropes.
For tomorrow? What will it be? A strange sprint-race. Normal flat sprinters will not survive the climbs. Not really a clue.
Bohn (Kasseienstoempers), Mensschaert (Ngogo) and Trotz (Pedale) are all left with maximum fitness - so pretty sure they are going to end up front.
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Post by naspa on Jan 9, 2018 13:52:49 GMT 1
Congratz to @pedale. Parisot was the only one in top 10 set at full effort. And it paid off. Although Banciu got close, put at 90%. Naz was pretty strong too- at 75% effort still taking some time on his competitors, Buitenhuis, Welsschen and Veen.
We lost today a first rider due to injury. The 22-year old Torres (Melres) was unlucky and is now out for 3 weeks. Get well soon!
So, we can place now our bets for tomorrow. In a flat TT, Tirlea would be have been the paramount favourite. Sauersteig for second. But this TT has 18 ascending km's, 7 km's with even 14%! And we have seen Vandekerckhove (PolyJean) and Trotz (Pedale) saving their energy today. Even Naz with his strong climbing skills is a contender for top 5 again.
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Post by naspa on Jan 9, 2018 10:08:54 GMT 1
For sure an interesting stage today. No injuries yet. And 39 of all 50 riders will start with 100% fitness. Will someone set a hill specialist/allrounder with high effort, or will at the end of the day the Quiller-tandem Banciu-Welsschen prevail again? Broers of Ngogo? Maybe Veen of PollyJean? Who dares to go all in?
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