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Post by naspa on Jan 28, 2018 11:28:32 GMT 1
While the teamleader of Carapaz is spending millions on excellent young riders, the speculations about the end-results of the Tour de France have already started.
It seems that the winner of the yellow jersey (and probably the green as well) has to come from the top 5 already formed. I think we have to study the rest of races carefully. Assuming the differences on flat will not get much bigger, the other skills might be decisive. Bienert might be the best climber, Giannarelli has the best sprint and Brognoli the best hill. After flat, to my opinion mountain will be key. So my favorite for now is (1) Bienert. Than I would say because the ITT, (2) Brognoli. And (3) Giannarelli. Van den Elzen being a dark horse for me. I do not have a good idea of his skills. For now I assume he is allround but less developed. And I still think Venturato can come back in the mountains to contend for top 3. The best climber to my opinion, Hingant, has probably lost too much already. Likewise Lorens. The can still go for the polka-dot though.
Youth Rankings are - for Ferreira (Carapaz). I have tried to contend with Huizinga, but I have already lost 4 minutes and this will not become better when the climbing starts. For today a special race. Almost a sprint. But with one attack point. Will this be enough for the attackers and the CG man to stay away? Which attacker will spend the most energy on winning? Caff*gi, Stroh, Pietrok or Nadeau? Or will Barbantini finally show off his sprinting skill?
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Post by naspa on Jan 28, 2018 12:41:31 GMT 1
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Post by Ab Normaal on Jan 28, 2018 13:10:28 GMT 1
Ouwch. 9 minutes for Bienert and vd Elzen....
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Post by naspa on Jan 28, 2018 13:16:51 GMT 1
Congrats to Pedale. Barbantini got his first victory this Tour and will have at least one more chance in the final race in Paris. Bienert and Van den Elzen lost almost 9 minutes today on Brognoli and Giannarelli. This will be very hard to repair. If the have not given up by now, I guess Stage 6 will be crucial for their GC-plans. At that point we will see if and how much they can take back in the mountains.
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Post by pollyjean on Jan 28, 2018 13:51:56 GMT 1
Nice Pedale duo sprinting style today. Brognoli and Giannarelli are the best GC'ers in flat. Their Tt (and other) skills are almost similar (brognoli wins on Fl and Hl, Gianna on Mo and Sp) so it will be very close.
Don't think Bienert is out of the game after fitness training and some mountains to go. But personally I think his climbing advantage will be too small to make up this amount of time. Van den Elzen is unknown to me but he looks more like a good Fl/Hl allrounder. Don't think his climbing will gain much time on the other guys.
Also still 3 stages to go where flat will be important.
Remarquable that many good rides already burnt their fitness a lot and will have to watch for the rest of the Tour.
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Post by ElGringo on Jan 28, 2018 16:23:11 GMT 1
I forgot to set the right tactic for today, I though that was a sprimt stage, bad call and also didn't check if I set my rider correctly so Pedale Bolognese had an easy sprint. My bad decision took Stroh to fight for todays stage. Congratz Pedale Bolognese for the duo
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piero
Junior Team
Posts: 28
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[19] 3:2
Jan 28, 2018 19:20:27 GMT 1
via mobile
Post by piero on Jan 28, 2018 19:20:27 GMT 1
Thanks, I'm very happy, important stage. Barbantini was in a wanderful fitness. A proud stage at the end of his carrer... Alunno too make an important race. I belive on his victory... Now a relax week
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Post by Ab Normaal on Jan 29, 2018 14:40:03 GMT 1
Interesting week in the TdF. Who will aim for stages and how is the fight for the gc going to develop. First stage is a short one. Will this bring only small time differences and a good stage to save fitness or is this killing?
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Post by naspa on Jan 29, 2018 16:22:39 GMT 1
That's a difficult question. I assume Bienert will attack in stage 1 at 75%, stage 2 at 75% and stage 3 at 80%. If Brognoli starts stage 5 at 99% he will profit more from his superiority in hill-skill. In your case it might be a good idea - the loss you will suffer from stage 4, you can make up in 5 and consolidate in 6. For Giannarelli it is different I guess. I a short race the sprint skills will be relatively more important. I would attack 75-75-75% and to take a bit more time in stage 4, and try not losing much in 5 and 6 and hope for the best for next week. If you -or Polyjean- still have strong helpers, a consideration can also be to assign the sprint-order to your GC man at 70% in stage 4 and hope the helpers will try to keep the gap with the attackers as small as possible.
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Post by quiller on Jan 30, 2018 12:59:40 GMT 1
Bienert will idd attack in one minute... He will fight till the end!!!!
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Post by quiller on Jan 30, 2018 13:06:21 GMT 1
Well we didnt gain much time BUT i am happy... allthough i lost the stage in last meters...
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Post by naspa on Jan 30, 2018 13:46:07 GMT 1
None of the GC man dared to try an alternative strategy. And there were not enough attack points left for other riders to attack or they will wait for a chance to score more mountain points... So it was a good day for a 29 year old to give it a try.
Ximenes got his first professional senior victory. A very important win for him/me. I bought him some 6-7 seasons ago. IT was time for him to show all the training effort was not in vain!
Saturday... Of the GC men I guess Brognoli will take back some time. And maybe we will see a day victory attempt of Van den Elzen?
But first we go to Austria. Any predictions? Anyone willing to reveal the plans? I am short of climbers, so this is not a tour for me. I am still not sure yet what to do. Probably aim for youngster rankings with Herregodts and maybe try for a day victory - most likely the first race- with one of the others.
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Post by Ab Normaal on Jan 30, 2018 14:13:45 GMT 1
Congratz Naspa. Nice victory! I remember I was really delighted with the first win of a younger rider. I guess the champaign is coming tonight after dinner at team Naspa Achne 26. I was really, really in doubt to save fitness today with Brognoli. Race report shows he comes way to short to Giannarelli and Bienert on mountain. Brognoli is a flat/hill rider with a bith of mountain. This is the first time I am aiming the GC, which is just an experiment and a last minute decision. He was originally scheduled to fight for tomorrows stage win. Normally he would win little time on Giannarelli and Bienert tomorrow, but he will lose double that time in stage 6. Nevertheless, with current standings, he will normally make the podium this Tour, which I never expected. For Austria I haven't got a cracking team, like most of the managers. I have my second leader who is there just for the LS points, two guys who will attempt a stage each, a young rider for the YC and still doubting what to do with the last spot. Already put one up, but it could also be changed. Strongest team for Austria seems to be Berdios, if his riders go in full. Then there is Buitenhuis from Pollyjean and Lameira, who will definately win a stage (unless he is going for GC ) and Flanquart from you Naspa. My guess would be Buitenhuis and Flanquart the big favourites for GC and Lameira for stage 1 or 2. Am I correct?
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Post by naspa on Jan 30, 2018 14:55:04 GMT 1
Ha ha... Thanks for the Advice, Ab. I have set Lameira for a stage and Flanquart for GC. However... Flanquart - he is an ageing allrounder, nothing special in the mountains. Saving him for Poland will not be of much use. I hope he will make top 5 in GC. For now, Buitenhuis seems favorite for GC and Polkadot.
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Post by Ab Normaal on Jan 30, 2018 15:01:41 GMT 1
Ha ha... Thanks for the Advice, Ab. I have set Lameira for a stage and Flanquart for GC. However... Flanquart - he is an ageing allrounder, nothing special in the mountains. Saving him for Poland will not be of much use. I hope he will make top 5 in GC. For now, Buitenhuis seems favorite for GC and Polkadot. What stage? 1 or 2? I think the winner of stage 3 will win Polka Dot. Bit if somebody rides that stage with 98% fitness, he won't be the winner of the GC. So I guess a good chance that the winner of MJ and GC isn't the same rider.
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