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Post by Ab Normaal on Nov 29, 2019 11:05:28 GMT 1
Is there influence you can have on the age of the pulls you get from your youthscout?
I see Heppie already has 3 18 yo out of the 3 possible pulls with a perception 15 scout, so a 100% score, and I got 3 19 you with a perception 19 scout, so a score of 0% (if you set 18 yo as a standard). Or is it pure luck?
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Post by bam on Nov 29, 2019 11:14:28 GMT 1
As far as I know it's just pure luck. The perception only influences the chance on a pull (linearly, so 15 means a 75% chance on a pull, 19 means a 95% chance on a pull), but the age is arbitrary. I expected that it should be about 50/50, but I see that my scout realised a 56/44 ratio (18/19). I have him since season 10, so either I'm quite lucky with the age, or there is a slight bias to 18 year olds (but the only way to test is to keep long term statistics, this season for example I found 1 18 year old and 2 19 year olds).
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Post by dustin on Nov 29, 2019 11:27:10 GMT 1
I think it is the moment.
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Post by heppie on Nov 29, 2019 14:40:02 GMT 1
As far as I know it's just pure luck. The perception only influences the chance on a pull (linearly, so 15 means a 75% chance on a pull, 19 means a 95% chance on a pull), but the age is arbitrary. I expected that it should be about 50/50, but I see that my scout realised a 56/44 ratio (18/19). I have him since season 10, so either I'm quite lucky with the age, or there is a slight bias to 18 year olds (but the only way to test is to keep long term statistics, this season for example I found 1 18 year old and 2 19 year olds). My guess would also be that the probability that a new pull is 18 years is 50% (regardless the results of previous youth scout searches). Indeed, so far this season I've been lucky with 3 new 18 year old, but end of last season I also had a couple of times a 19 year old. If I find time a will check the stats of my YS in more detail.
Edit: Just had a look at the results of my YS, which I already have from season 9 on. Of the 185 pulled cyclists 98 (53.0%) were 18. So it seems indeed that 50/50 divided.
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Post by Poekie on Dec 15, 2019 20:53:02 GMT 1
There is a solution (which I have already posted before), adding extra points for extra years. But I guess we need a programmer for that?
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Post by eboese on Dec 15, 2019 21:02:16 GMT 1
There's an even easier solution. Don't hire a youth scout and just buy a decent 18 year old on the transfer market
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Post by Mike on Dec 15, 2019 21:29:43 GMT 1
Related to this topic... Is there a way to fire a cyclist? (End his conract)
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Post by eboese on Dec 15, 2019 21:39:45 GMT 1
Related to this topic... Is there a way to fire a cyclist? (End his conract) Yep, just start up the contract negotiations with that rider and then you will get a 'Fire Cyclist' option on the right hand side under options.
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Post by Mike on Dec 15, 2019 21:46:21 GMT 1
Ok thx. Was thinking about 19y old pulls not wanted...
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Post by tossboom on Jan 6, 2020 9:37:43 GMT 1
Had 1 18 year old, 5 19's and 3 times nothing. Perception 15. Youthscout sucks..
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Post by Schizm on Jan 6, 2020 11:18:01 GMT 1
I am doing slightly better with two 18 yo, 4 times 19 and 3 times nothing this season. Still a very bad scouting season so far ... (I (also) have a 15-15-15 scout)
edit: Just to proof that in the end it all comes down to luck : Last season I had 7x18, 6x19, 4 times nothing
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Post by Ab Normaal on Jan 6, 2020 11:49:06 GMT 1
I fired mine last week after another 19 yo. For that costs, I am going to buy 2 18 yo next season.
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Post by ElGringo on Jan 6, 2020 13:02:58 GMT 1
This season I got 2 18y and 5 19y old
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Post by Schizm on Jan 6, 2020 14:09:38 GMT 1
Top 30 Teams with a "Lucky" Youthscout this season* :
Team YS-pulls 18yo Gonzalez 9 5 Op kop de sloot in 9 5 J.M. Jiménez 9 3 Panteras Negras 8 7 RS Cycling 8 6 Polhill Racing CC 8 5 Melres United 8 3 De Kasseienstoempers 8 2 L.EMA 7 2 Quiller Boys 7 2 Lowart 6 5 Headcase Pro Cycling 6 4 BeterLaatDanNooit 6 4 GIK team 6 4 joachim1107 6 4 SeMTeX 6 4 Freistadt Fury 6 3 Berdios Pro Cycling 6 3 Schizmano Development 6 2 Tossboom 6 1 bolzonis 5 5 DeZweters 5 5 team dustin 5 4 SAECO 5 3 Pedale Bolognese 5 2 Bear 5 1 Thors Thunder 5 1 Carapaz 4 4 Het sniperteam 3.0 4 2 The Mothers of Invention 4 1
Did not included YS-skills because they could have varied over the weeks
edit: in total 114/205 where 18yo*
* (37 active and 1 inactive team) teams who started playing peloton this season are NOT included
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Post by bam on Jan 6, 2020 19:17:45 GMT 1
I didn't expect that it would be possible to trace back all pulls, nice work! But I don't really agree that the current sorting represents the luck with the scout. Of course the number of pulls can be a result of luck, but I think it should be compared with the expected number of pulls to tell something about that. For example, I had a 15 perception scout all the time, so only expected 6.75 pulls. I got 9, so I'm quite lucky on that part. But J.M. Jiménez has a 20 perception scout, and assuming he had that all the time as well you would expect 9 pulls as well (in fact, any lower number would be a bug). So I wouldn't call him lucky just because he got pulls all the time, he simply pays for that. Similarly some teams may not always have had their scout (like Ab, who fired him last week appearantly), so the number is lower for that reason, not for luck. Pity that we can't determine that for all teams anymore. But another form of luck can be determined from these stats, namely the percentage of 18 year olds compared to the number of pulls. That would be expected at 50% for every team, so everything above 50% would be "lucky" then, everything below it "unlucky". I put that value in the table, and sorted on it: Team | Pulls | 18 yo | % 18 yo |
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bolzonis | 5 | 5 | 100.0 | DeZweters | 5 | 5 | 100.0 | Carapaz | 4 | 4 | 100.0 | Panteras Negras | 8 | 7 | 87.5 | Lowart | 6 | 5 | 83.3 | team dustin | 5 | 4 | 80.0 | RS Cycling | 8 | 6 | 75.0 | Headcase Pro Cycling | 6 | 4 | 66.7 | BeterLaatDanNooit | 6 | 4 | 66.7 | GIK team | 6 | 4 | 66.7 | joachim1107 | 6 | 4 | 66.7 | SeMTeX | 6 | 4 | 66.7 | Polhill Racing CC | 8 | 5 | 62.5 | SAECO | 5 | 3 | 60.0 | Gonzalez | 9 | 5 | 55.6 | Op kop de sloot in | 9 | 5 | 55.6 | Freistadt Fury | 6 | 3 | 50.0 | Berdios Pro Cycling | 6 | 3 | 50.0 | Het sniperteam | 4 | 2 | 50.0 | Pedale Bolognese | 5 | 2 | 40.0 | Melres United | 8 | 3 | 37.5 | J.M. Jiménez | 9 | 3 | 33.3 | Schizmano Development | 6 | 2 | 33.3 | L.EMA | 7 | 2 | 28.6 | Quiller Boys | 7 | 2 | 28.6 | De Kasseienstoempers | 8 | 2 | 25.0 | The Mothers of Invention | 4 | 1 | 25.0 | Bear | 5 | 1 | 20.0 | Thors Thunder | 5 | 1 | 20.0 | Tossboom | 6 | 1 | 16.7 |
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