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Post by Stinus1986 on Feb 6, 2019 9:14:44 GMT 1
7 weeks ago I hired a youth scout in my attempt to focus more on youngsters. But until this day he failed to find me a rider every week. I find this very strange and seems to be some sort of bug. I did the math and it would be a chance of 0.56% that he would not find a rider 7 weeks in a row. I did 5 searches with a perception of 10, 1 with 11 and 1 with 12. Am I really that unlucky?
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Post by naspa on Feb 6, 2019 9:24:07 GMT 1
I had some troubles with a youthscout in de past. Even got him up to perceptio 15. Which theoretically would give a chance of 75% on a rider every week and had nothing form something like 12 pulls in a row. It can happen but would be rare and unlucky. To my opinion something strange is happening and the chances seem to have some correlation. The lucky ones stay lucky for too long and the unlucky ones do not get out of their bad series.
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Post by headcase on Feb 8, 2019 12:49:45 GMT 1
I never found any irregularities in the perception chances. 0.56% means that 1 in 200 managers has this bad luck. I think we have 100 active managers, so you might be just very unlucky.
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Post by dustin on Feb 8, 2019 13:58:18 GMT 1
I never found any irregularities in the perception chances. 0.56% means that 1 in 200 managers has this bad luck. I think we have 100 active managers, so you might be just very unlucky. And how many have a youthscout? Indeed, no luck .... but about a longer period it shall become ok
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Post by Stinus1986 on Feb 13, 2019 9:57:05 GMT 1
Well, after 8 weeks he finally found a suitable cyclist, 19 year old with 9 visible skill points. My luck did not improve much I guess...
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Post by Ab Normaal on Feb 13, 2019 11:14:50 GMT 1
Well, after 8 weeks he finally found a suitable cyclist, 19 year old with 9 visible skill points. My luck did not improve much I guess... 9 visible skill points isn’t a big problem, it just means he has a lot behind the dot. And hardly any talent found is also good. It means more picks in the future. 18 yo aren’t worth a lot this time of season. My advice is to train your scout this season on perception. If you start next season with perception 20, then he will find almost any week a talent. And if it is an 18 yo, you’ll hit the jackpot.
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Post by JoeLag on Feb 13, 2019 12:01:33 GMT 1
Well, after 8 weeks he finally found a suitable cyclist, 19 year old with 9 visible skill points. My luck did not improve much I guess... 9 visible skill points isn’t a big problem, it just means he has a lot behind the dot. And hardly any talent found is also good. It means more picks in the future. 18 yo aren’t worth a lot this time of season. My advice is to train your scout this season on perception. If you start next season with perception 20, then he will find almost any week a talent. And if it is an 18 yo, you’ll hit the jackpot. Unfortunately not. Probability doesn't work that way. Or - Schizm? - is it implemented in another way? If you have a fair six-sided dice the probability to roll a 6 is exactly 1/6. If you roll (given that you are using a fair dice) 100 times in a row a 1 the probability to roll a 6 in the next roll still is 1/6. Of course you can argue that the probability to roll 100 times in a row a 1 is only (1/6)^100 which roughly equals 0. But it doesn't change the probability for the next roll.
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Post by Ab Normaal on Feb 13, 2019 12:24:14 GMT 1
9 visible skill points isn’t a big problem, it just means he has a lot behind the dot. And hardly any talent found is also good. It means more picks in the future. 18 yo aren’t worth a lot this time of season. My advice is to train your scout this season on perception. If you start next season with perception 20, then he will find almost any week a talent. And if it is an 18 yo, you’ll hit the jackpot. Unfortunately not. Probability doesn't work that way. Or - Schizm? - is it implemented in another way? If you have a fair six-sided dice the probability to roll a 6 is exactly 1/6. If you roll (given that you are using a fair dice) 100 times in a row a 1 the probability to roll a 6 in the next roll still is 1/6. Of course you can argue that the probability to roll 100 times in a row a 1 is only (1/6)^100 which roughly equals 0. But it doesn't change the probability for the next roll. Only with perception 13, there are 3 sixes on the dice, with percetion 20 there are 5 or six.
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Post by naspa on Feb 13, 2019 16:58:04 GMT 1
If the chances would be not related to each other and you have 0,5 chance on a positive result, still the a priori chance of having zero success in a 10 time series is (0,5)^10. Which makes it 0.1 % that those things will happen. So one in a 1000. It is not impossible, but to me it happened too often with bigger chances on succes even - so I cannot believe there is not something else going on there. I think you broke the ban... But now you will probably get a few weeks in a row only 19 year olds :-)
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