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Post by Ab Normaal on Aug 2, 2018 9:49:57 GMT 1
I’ll be honest. I have no clue if today is for a mountain guy with decent hill skill or a hiller with decent mountain skill. I am still doubting and changed my squad already a few times.
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Post by eboese on Aug 2, 2018 10:51:39 GMT 1
Looking at the profile, I think a mountain guy with a good hill skill. There's a 30km climb just before the finish, so I think a high mountain skill is crucial. The hill skill needs to be high enough though to avoid a big time loss in the early parts of the race (I expect Malton to struggle there). I expect Malabaila and Velardi to do well. Gueroult will be in front most of the stage, but I think the mountain section might be too much for him.
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Post by bam on Aug 2, 2018 11:40:00 GMT 1
I don't expect Malabaila to do much better in the hills than Malton. So for me Velardi is the favourite today.
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Post by Ab Normaal on Aug 2, 2018 12:02:19 GMT 1
So it was for the mountain guys...
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Post by Zberg on Aug 2, 2018 12:17:46 GMT 1
Just a training stage for Velardi..
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Post by bam on Aug 2, 2018 12:18:19 GMT 1
Yes, clearly it was. And still Malton and Guth are the best in such a race (congrats with your double win eboese). But Timm was not that far away, at the end of the season he might be the better one. Velardi didn't go at full effort. Seems he has other plans next week?
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Post by ElGringo on Aug 2, 2018 12:20:18 GMT 1
Till the last 30km mountain all riders were very close, after that the pure climbers crash hillers intentions.
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Post by Ab Normaal on Aug 2, 2018 12:24:41 GMT 1
Yes, clearly it was. And still Malton and Guth are the best in such a race (congrats with your double win eboese). But Timm was not that far away, at the end of the season he might be the better one. Velardi didn't go at full effort. Seems he has other plans next week? I’ll have to check the race report but Timm is still lacking the necessary hill skill. I am convinced that he can keep up with Malton and Guth in the mountains. Hope that the report proves my theory. Anxious for the first tour tomorrow! Should be the first time that I think I can score points, except for stage 1.
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Post by heppie on Aug 2, 2018 13:06:06 GMT 1
Till the last 30km mountain all riders were very close, after that the pure climbers crash hillers intentions.
Exactly, the last mountain was too long and steep for the hillers. Gueroult lost >8 minutes... Congratz eboese with the double win you're nearly closed the gap.
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Post by Ab Normaal on Aug 2, 2018 13:12:23 GMT 1
Hmmmm, strange. Timm lost almost two minutes on Malton and Guth. Very strange. I am 100% sure that his mountain skill is at least equal to Malton and Guth.
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Post by Schizm on Aug 2, 2018 13:32:13 GMT 1
Hmmmm, strange. Timm lost almost two minutes on Malton and Guth. Very strange. I am 100% sure that his mountain skill is at least equal to Malton and Guth. Timm is between Guth and Malton on mountain (the same is true for the hill skill). So Guth winning time on Timm is mainly mood, partly other skills and maybe a combo attack strategy (?) (If I wouldnt have sold the lot I would have tried some Yang-Guiggi combo attacks today at the first 2 or 3 attackpoints; BTW : the winner in 2.1 (Rios) who beat my ex-rider Guiggi today is the same type as Yang.).
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Post by eboese on Aug 2, 2018 18:50:28 GMT 1
Mountain skill is important, but TT, SP and mood are a major factor as well. Not sure about Timm's TT and SP, but seeing that he's only 32 with a very high mountain skill I'm pretty sure these won't be (much) better than Malton and Guth's. And what I do see is that Timm only has a 'pleased' mood, this is a big disadvantage compared to the very happy's he's competing with. Surprised, but very pleased, with today's result. The first mountain section played a much bigger role than I anticipated upfront. Malton did get behind in the hills (not sure why Guth did better there, his hill skills are actually worse), but he was able to recover fully at the first mountain attack point. After that it was mainly about limiting the loss before reaching the 30km mountain stretch. More of these races please
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Post by Ab Normaal on Aug 2, 2018 19:50:25 GMT 1
Mountain skill is important, but TT, SP and mood are a major factor as well. Not sure about Timm's TT and SP, but seeing that he's only 32 with a very high mountain skill I'm pretty sure these won't be (much) better than Malton and Guth's. And what I do see is that Timm only has a 'pleased' mood, this is a big disadvantage compared to the very happy's he's competing with. Surprised, but very pleased, with today's result. The first mountain section played a much bigger role than I anticipated upfront. Malton did get behind in the hills (not sure why Guth did better there, his hill skills are actually worse), but he was able to recover fully at the first mountain attack point. After that it was mainly about limiting the loss before reaching the 30km mountain stretch. More of these races please Well, you have posted Malton's skill on December 28, 2017. Since he has a whole year of skill decreasing, let's say it is fair that he lost 3 points in total, then I think that at this moment the mountain and hill skill of Timm and Malton are comparable, malton has much better flat, Timm better DH, TT skill of Timm is better and sprint of Malton is better. The difference is the mood. But I still don't know why this is shown then on the mountain part and not the others. If you add mountain and TT skill, Timm has minimum the same as Malton. That he loses on the flat is very logical.
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Post by heppie on Aug 5, 2018 12:54:19 GMT 1
Standings after the first week Nr |
| Ploeg | GR | TT | PT | BT | Punten | % total pts |
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1 |
| BeterLaatDanNooit | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 447 | 22,17 | 2 |
| De Droeftoeters | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 418 | 20,73 | 3 |
| Op kop de sloot in | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 369 | 18,30 | 4 |
| De Kasseienstoempers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 11,21 | 5 |
| Tossboom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 5,26 | 6 |
| Gonzalez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 4,96 | 7 |
| WC Bloedzak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96 | 4,76 | 8 |
| Thors Thunder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 3,97 | 9 |
| The Mothers of Invention | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 3,47 | 10 |
| En Danseuse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 3,27 | 11 |
| Joanteam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 1,88 | 12 |
| Melres United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0,00 |
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Post by ElGringo on Aug 5, 2018 18:01:09 GMT 1
As expected no points for me this week. Next week I hope I can fight for the white jersey in Algarve and for the U21 stage.
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