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Post by kurtinsc on Feb 28, 2013 14:41:22 GMT 1
Looks like your climbers have a better downhill sprint then Maessen does. Things just aren't quite working out with him in this Giro. He wins the sprints for mountain points, but things are conspiring to keep him from a stage 1. First mountain stage he was dropped for an 11 second loss on the final stage. Second mountain stage he was dropped on a flat or downhill section prior to the climb. Third mountain stage ended downhill.
Still... he's in good shape for the mountain jersey after taking all the mountain sprints. Hopefully he can defend that and I can get Goorts into a decent final placing. I don't like my chances on the next 3 stages (no great TT riders and no flat-sprinter in this squad). Maybe if the hills shed a few guys then Batistoni can win one with his good sprint but average flat rating... but I'm doubting it based on stage 2. Too many good sprint guys with better flat and good enough hill rankings.
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leor16
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Post by leor16 on Mar 1, 2013 12:36:15 GMT 1
I don't have a clue what the TT will do to the GC, my riders just have between 2 a 3 on that skill .. I hope that'll be enough to make chance on a good GC
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 1, 2013 15:02:49 GMT 1
Wow... that time trial REALLY blew things up. Forza is now dominating the race, but spent a lot of fitness with his top 3 guys to get there (they're at 65%,65% and 70%). Magistrini at the 5 spot is the first rider with 85% fitness, but he's nearly 4 minutes down from the leaders.
Plus, with Forza's team, the TTT will likely help him a lot at the end, even with low fitness. His team will gain a big chunk of time there. And there isn't much in the way of mountains left in the race.
Leader: Paduart (Forza) - 65% 1:21 - Sakon (Forza) - 70% 1:40 - Victor (Forza) - 65% 2:11 - Gonclaves (Ngogo) - 63% 3:54 - Magistrini (Bicisintra) - 85% 3:56 - Perotti (kleinbikes) - 85% 4:13 - Candries (EBH) - 77% 4:14 - Staquet (Forza) - 65% 4:21 - Broers (Ngogo) - 85% 4:28 - Goorts (WB) - 85% 4:54 - Belmont (EBH) - 85% 4:54 - Mugnaini (Sanjp) - 85% 5:47 - Blais (EBH) - 81% 5:49 - Potoms (Ngogo) - 85% 6:00 - Coopman (xapa) - 85%
So you have a big group in the 4-5 minute back range with a 15% fitness lead on the leaders. Going to be very up in the air.
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leor16
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Post by leor16 on Mar 1, 2013 19:48:54 GMT 1
Wow... that time trial REALLY blew things up. Forza is now dominating the race, but spent a lot of fitness with his top 3 guys to get there (they're at 65%,65% and 70%). Magistrini at the 5 spot is the first rider with 85% fitness, but he's nearly 4 minutes down from the leaders. Plus, with Forza's team, the TTT will likely help him a lot at the end, even with low fitness. His team will gain a big chunk of time there. And there isn't much in the way of mountains left in the race. Leader: Paduart (Forza) - 65% 1:21 - Sakon (Forza) - 70% 1:40 - Victor (Forza) - 65% 2:11 - Gonclaves (Ngogo) - 63% 3:54 - Magistrini (Bicisintra) - 85% 3:56 - Perotti (kleinbikes) - 85% 4:13 - Candries (EBH) - 77% 4:14 - Staquet (Forza) - 65% 4:21 - Broers (Ngogo) - 85% 4:28 - Goorts (WB) - 85% 4:54 - Belmont (EBH) - 85% 4:54 - Mugnaini (Sanjp) - 85% 5:47 - Blais (EBH) - 81% 5:49 - Potoms (Ngogo) - 85% 6:00 - Coopman (xapa) - 85% So you have a big group in the 4-5 minute back range with a 15% fitness lead on the leaders. Going to be very up in the air. Forza's riders are poor on flat i think, and with 2 'flat'-stages ahead, I hope I can bring my riders again closer to the lead ..
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leor16
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Post by leor16 on Mar 2, 2013 13:24:35 GMT 1
Hmm, there just where not enough climbers to lose Baratti on that 1 mountain(even with low fitness), but at least i could win the last stage with an attacker and get the point jersey by winning the pelotonsprint. So that compensates the bad start in the first two stages for a bit
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 2, 2013 19:10:09 GMT 1
Looks like Serbia has taught me I need to trust in my sprinters more and quit trying attacks when my better sprinters are in the race. I had guys attacking (unsuccessfully) in all 3 stages. If I had them riding as helpers with 100% effort instead of attacking, perhaps I could have made all three into group sprints.
Even going at 80%, having gone 100% in stage 1... Rosa finished 3rd in the final group sprint. A 3rd plus a 1st with no successful attacks might have been a GC win.
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 3, 2013 13:59:54 GMT 1
Well, I got my stage win so I'm pretty happy with the result. Only real impact on the GC was Victor's fall, taking him from 3rd overall to 16th.
With that attack succeeding, I think I have at least one more stage I can take in the Giro barring bad luck. Maybe two with a bit of good luck. The flip side is with the leaders all having no significant time change, I can't see Forza losing the overall unless all his guys fall, and I'm betting my guys will lose a TON of time in it. My team (as a whole, not just the Giro group) is weak in TT.
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leor16
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Post by leor16 on Mar 3, 2013 16:35:10 GMT 1
Well, I got my stage win so I'm pretty happy with the result. Only real impact on the GC was Victor's fall, taking him from 3rd overall to 16th. With that attack succeeding, I think I have at least one more stage I can take in the Giro barring bad luck. Maybe two with a bit of good luck. The flip side is with the leaders all having no significant time change, I can't see Forza losing the overall unless all his guys fall, and I'm betting my guys will lose a TON of time in it. My team (as a whole, not just the Giro group) is weak in TT. Tomorrow the last chance to take some time back I guess, with longer flat-strokes it should be possible to lose some Forza-riders.
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 3, 2013 21:18:07 GMT 1
Not with my team. I don't have the flat skill (other then my GC guy) to push the pace. I image other teams are similarly skilled... with the exception possibly of B-S. I don't think the peloton speed will be fast enough to drop anyone... so we'll see if anyone tries an attack with a main rider to pick up time.
The problem... then your main rider will be fatigued and there's still 4 stages to go after this one. Probably makes more sense for a leader with a big flat skill to make an attempt on stage 9.
I expect a lot of action on stage 10... I'm just not sure it will matter. It's not like the wins from the break have been putting big time in on anyone. 1-2 minutes on the 2nd to last stage might pull you within shouting distance... but enough to overtake a strong TT team on a TTT? Especially without a fitness edge anymore?
If his guys didn't drop at the beginning of stage 2... I don't anticipate it happening with a shorter opening flat and more non-flat terrain to come back on.
So... hunting stages and looking for as good a GC finish as I can get with Goorts. But little to no shot at a win.
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leor16
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Post by leor16 on Mar 4, 2013 13:29:58 GMT 1
Not with my team. I don't have the flat skill (other then my GC guy) to push the pace. I image other teams are similarly skilled... with the exception possibly of B-S. I don't think the peloton speed will be fast enough to drop anyone... so we'll see if anyone tries an attack with a main rider to pick up time. The problem... then your main rider will be fatigued and there's still 4 stages to go after this one. Probably makes more sense for a leader with a big flat skill to make an attempt on stage 9. I expect a lot of action on stage 10... I'm just not sure it will matter. It's not like the wins from the break have been putting big time in on anyone. 1-2 minutes on the 2nd to last stage might pull you within shouting distance... but enough to overtake a strong TT team on a TTT? Especially without a fitness edge anymore? If his guys didn't drop at the beginning of stage 2... I don't anticipate it happening with a shorter opening flat and more non-flat terrain to come back on. So... hunting stages and looking for as good a GC finish as I can get with Goorts. But little to no shot at a win. Flat has became a useless skill in the new RE, a whole flat race without any dropping, while that one small stroke of mountain makes huge gaps .. :/ BTW: Strange that Alarcon keeps winning pelotonsprints with only 4 sprint ..
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 4, 2013 16:36:24 GMT 1
Well, The guys with good flat and sprint are probably mostly in the 15-20 riders who were dropped. Someone like Coones would have likely won if he was in the final group.
Part of the people not dropping is the relatively small number of entrants in the Giro with high flat skills. With few flat-skilled entrants, I think few will drop on flat sections but small mountain sections can be brutal with all the mountain skilled guys helping at the front. I think the flats will be tougher at the Tour and the mountains not quite so tough as we'll have more flat riders in the race.
Maessen can sprint uphill well, but not so much on a flat or downhill finish. Batistoni can sprint on hill and flat finishes, but any mountain seems to drop him like a rock. Alarcon must be a little bit more well-rounded.
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looze
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Post by looze on Mar 5, 2013 9:25:42 GMT 1
I hope some of my riders can follow the peloton today, but it will be difficult. Too much hill.
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 5, 2013 13:38:54 GMT 1
I hope some of my riders can follow the peloton today, but it will be difficult. Too much hill. Well, it looks like for the most part they did. I think B-S and my team probably have the best hill-skilled guys in the race, and both of us sent guys on the attack rather then trying to push the pace of the peloton. I considered using Batistoni as a helper at 100% rather then going for the stage win (this stage is why I brought him to the Giro) in order to see if I could drop some guys ahead of Goorts on the GC... but I decided that was what was getting me in trouble before... worrying too much about the GC and not enough about going for stages. So... two stage wins makes this a very successful Giro. I'll let the GC fall where it may... I'm content with what I've gotten already. Now if I can protect Maessen's ever-shrinking lead in the mountains, then I'll be very happy.
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 6, 2013 15:25:04 GMT 1
Interesting result today. Coones was fatigued, but he must really be the only flat sprinter entered. Maessen is in good fitness, but he's got a 2 flat and still managed 2nd in the final sprint going at 70%. Batistoni was fatigued after yesterday's effort and was going at 70% and still got 3rd (shame his mountain is so low and weight is so high so he couldn't finish with the big groups on other stages... he'd have gotten a lot of wins I think). Tomorrow will be interesting I think. Last stage to make a move before the TTT. Combination of flat, hill, mountain and downhill points to launch attacks. Who'll go for broke and who'll ride conservatively and hope to hold position in the TTT? My team is devoid of TT riders (only two of them are even 2 in TT)... so I guess that tells you what direction I'll be going tomorrow.
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leor16
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Post by leor16 on Mar 6, 2013 22:39:33 GMT 1
Interesting result today. Coones was fatigued, but he must really be the only flat sprinter entered. Maessen is in good fitness, but he's got a 2 flat and still managed 2nd in the final sprint going at 70%. Batistoni was fatigued after yesterday's effort and was going at 70% and still got 3rd (shame his mountain is so low and weight is so high so he couldn't finish with the big groups on other stages... he'd have gotten a lot of wins I think). Tomorrow will be interesting I think. Last stage to make a move before the TTT. Combination of flat, hill, mountain and downhill points to launch attacks. Who'll go for broke and who'll ride conservatively and hope to hold position in the TTT? My team is devoid of TT riders (only two of them are even 2 in TT)... so I guess that tells you what direction I'll be going tomorrow. I send 1 rider on the attack, the others wait for the TTT for their final effort. I hope my attacker can join yours and build togheter a gap that is large enough to make the TTT important for my team ..
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