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Post by wheelnut on Aug 8, 2019 18:11:07 GMT 1
sorry last three numbers are form for the three days/stages
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Post by Mike on Aug 8, 2019 18:33:42 GMT 1
This begs a number of questions... Does the form value freeze between races or change daily? How does victory or likewise failure in races affect form if at all? Do all riders vary between max (10?) and min (4?) or do some have built in max/mins? Does the form value freeze between races or change daily?: freezeHow does victory or likewise failure in races affect form if at all? no influenceDo all riders vary between max (10?) and min (4?) or do some have built in max/mins? yes between 4-10
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Post by wheelnut on Aug 8, 2019 23:13:21 GMT 1
thx Mike, as suspected then...as I think you said previously a form that changes widely may not be a bad grand tour rider
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Post by bosko on Aug 9, 2019 8:21:12 GMT 1
over the last three stages Paris to nice I have tracked my five man team. My GC rider Agoff, started on 10 but jumped down to 4 by the end (he won the tour, green and mountain jersey). Others moved by one point per race/day. This begs a number of questions... Does the form value freeze between races or change daily? How does victory or likewise failure in races affect form if at all? Do all riders vary between max (10?) and min (4?) or do some have built in max/mins? My team... Cyclist FL HI MO DO SP TT form 1 form 2 form 3 A. Agoff 8 11 7 3 7 9 10 6 4 J. Carnighan 8 5 1 3 3 3 8 8 7 T. Laflore 7 1 8 3 7 4 7 10 8 I. Champeau 7 3 4 2 7 1 6 7 8 D. Edis 7 1 8 3 7 7 6 7 8 Can it be form 1 is before the race 1, form 2 after race 2 and form 3 after race 3? In that case, you miss the form after race 1. Than the formcurves would be like this: Agoff: 10- 8-6-4 = skill 3 Carnighan: 8- 10-8-7 = skill 4 or 5 Laflore: 7- 8-10-8 = skill 4 or 5 Champeau: 6- 6or7-7-8 = skill 8 or 9 Edis: 6- 6or7-7-8 = skill 8 or 9 That would explain the strange numbers for Agoff and Laflore.
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Post by wheelnut on Aug 11, 2019 22:30:01 GMT 1
Can it be form 1 is before the race 1, form 2 after race 2 and form 3 after race 3? - Correct, form 1 was after an update, after week 1 of the season. Form 2 is after the next race for that rider and so on...
what is the 'skill number you refer to and what is its relevance please?
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Post by bosko on Aug 12, 2019 6:46:01 GMT 1
I think the very first post in this topic explains it all:
"Every cyclist has a hidden skill which determines how many races he needs to get in top form (10) and back (to 4 –> formvalues below 4 are reserved for injured cyclists), the skill consists of a whole number between 1 and 9."
So every cyclist starts with form 4. If the formskill is 1, the cylist gets form 10 after 1 race. So form curve 4-10-4-10-4-10-4-10-4-10-..... If the formskill is 2, the cylist gets form 10 after 2 races. So form curve 4-7-10-7-4-7-10-7-4-7-..... ... If the formskill is 9, the cylist gets form 10 after 9 races. So form curve 4-4.66-5.33-6-6.66-7.33-8-8.66-9.33-10-9.33-8.66..... The decimals aren't showed, so you get: 4-4-5-6-6-7-8-8-9-10-9-8-...
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Post by Zberg on Aug 12, 2019 14:40:14 GMT 1
Exactly my interpretation..
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Post by wheelnut on Aug 12, 2019 17:49:01 GMT 1
OK thanks that explains it.
I guess for a grand tour rider you want 6 - 9 9reduce variation especially for GC, points or mtn jersey) For a short tour rider you could have 3 - 6 (highest at start of tour) and a single race or stage hunter 1 - 3 (picking your moment i.e. top form)
not sure of the influence of form; that I guess is us to find out from experience!
Certainly adds another dimension and variable.
More calculation and analysis required now!
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Post by Zberg on Aug 13, 2019 13:25:28 GMT 1
not sure of the influence of form; that I guess is us to find out from experience! That is the big question indeed. No clue yet..
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Post by Mike on Aug 13, 2019 14:00:44 GMT 1
The higher the experience of a rider, the more influence this new form will have.
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Post by wheelnut on Aug 24, 2019 8:05:26 GMT 1
So bearing this all in mind anyone actively selecting riders for races and stages on the basis of form?
Of course if at 4 will need races to move up from bottom so could pick riders on low form as Dom’s and riders on high form as GC
Picking your best GC rider while on 4 maybe not the best trick especially one off races!
If injury equals form lower than 4, do we think that riders on 4 or low form have increased chance of injury?
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Post by Poekie on Aug 25, 2019 15:38:57 GMT 1
Well, for single day races it's easy, form at 10 is the best. And for a gc rider in a three day tour 9-10-9. For a Grand Tour it's not so easy.
I assume that is not the case.
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