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Post by kurtinsc on Jul 12, 2014 13:22:36 GMT 1
Hmm. Not sure how to view the results of that stage for the Giro. Without seeing who's fitness training, I'm not sure where things stand in the GC. We can guess Nattramn will use fitness training but will anyone else?
Current top 20 and their fitness:
1. Sironi 26 15 09:55:49 WC VroOom (59%) 2. Fidatov 17 0 +1:38 Luptatorii din Rarau (80%) 3. Batistoni 23 7 +2:33 Warner Bros Racing (63%) 4. Debever 20 6 +2:42 Nattramn (65%) 5. Hoceden 19 10 +3:17 The Mothers of Invention (59%) 6. van Lingen 18 2 +3:20 WC VroOom (55%) 7. Lacroux 16 5 +4:25 Warner Bros Racing (80%) 8. Mini 7 0 +4:48 Tours.Cycle.Club (80%) 9. Guivarch 7 0 +5:04 Tours.Cycle.Club (80%) 10. Lampreia 15 0 +5:11 Luptatorii din Rarau (80%) 11. Laternano 13 0 +5:11 Luptatorii din Rarau (80%) 12. Cardei 10 0 +5:11 Luptatorii din Rarau (70%) 13. Vinzoli 6 0 +5:18 Pegasus Cycling (80%) 14. Thomas 6 0 +5:25 Pegasus Cycling (80%) 15. Eerens 10 0 +5:31 WC VroOom (80%) 16. Wavreille 8 0 +5:31 WC VroOom (80%) 17. Thomson 8 0 +5:31 WC VroOom 18. Stockman 5 0 +5:32 The Mothers of Invention 19. Cammaert 4 0 +5:34 Tours.Cycle.Club 20. Goorts 6 0 +5:49 Warner Bros Racing
So... Fidatov looks like the probable "top GC guy". Maybe a "contender" top 10 list something like this:
2. Fidatov 17 0 +0 Luptatorii din Rarau (80%) 4. Debever 20 6 +1:04 Nattramn (65%) 7. Lacroux 16 5 +2:47 Warner Bros Racing (80%) 8. Mini 7 0 +3:10 Tours.Cycle.Club (80%) 9. Guivarch 7 0 +3:26 Tours.Cycle.Club (80%) 10. Lampreia 15 0 +3:33 Luptatorii din Rarau (80%) 11. Laternano 13 0 +3:33 Luptatorii din Rarau (80%) 13. Vinzoli 6 0 +3:40 Pegasus Cycling (80%) 14. Thomas 6 0 +3:47 Pegasus Cycling (80%) 15. Eerens 10 0 +3:53 WC VroOom (80%)
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Post by rarau on Jul 12, 2014 18:26:15 GMT 1
So... Fidatov looks like the probable "top GC guy". Maybe a "contender" top 10 list something like this:I hope so but Fidatov have small mountain He is my best flat cyclist. So what to do when mountain come? To put him GC and all other to help him? Maybe with other motor engine this was a good tactic but in this motor engine count only attack, i think, for GC and of course good ITT and good TTT I dont like my results from Italy , without TTT, i expected more especially from Laternano, Lampreia and Cardei. I have no idea how to play next races from Italy. The good point is that some cyclists are already out from General Standings being played for a race like Sironi, Batistoni, Hoceden, van Lingen . I thinked that Debever will have better results but is ok like is now. Gianpiero Pettini (3527) have also 65% fitness. I think all first 40 cyclists have chances on General Standings till place 40. Forestieri +8:52 Tours.Cycle.Club from this 40 only Leyzen from Snake dont have chances because have 20y Of course if bettween this 39 cyclists are players 21-23y they dont have chances for GS And in the top 10 you put maybe all have chances without my Fidatov .
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Post by kurtinsc on Jul 14, 2014 3:08:27 GMT 1
Hmm... interesting that you didn't go 100% in the stage you attacked with Fidatov if he isn't a GC guy. If he doesn't at least have decent mountain, then I wouldn't try to hold on with him. I haven't seen that tactic work in quite a while.
I only went with 4 attack points with Batistoni in the last stage so I could get an extra one with Lacroux and it cost me any shot at the stage. I laid off the 3rd attack point and that's where Sironi got away and never looked back.
Even with the extra attack point, Lacroux's low effort attack didn't net much. Though who knows... that extra minute/1:20 on the rest could be pivotal when it comes down to it... I can only hope.
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Post by kurtinsc on Jul 15, 2014 12:25:23 GMT 1
5 stages to go in the Giro:
1. Goorts 26 15 18:36:16 Warner Bros Racing (64%) 2. Echevarria 17 9 +1:05 The Mothers of Invention (61%) 3. Adela 12 3 +2:44 Pegasus Cycling (55%) 4. Schelstraete 7 0 +4:35 Snake Milano (80%) 5. Cardei 21 0 +4:45 Luptatorii din Rarau (80%) 6. Fidatov 28 1 +6:57 Luptatorii din Rarau (60%) 7. Debever 40 9 +7:01 Nattramn (67%) 8. Forestieri 13 0 +8:08 Tours.Cycle.Club (80%) 9. Sironi 26 15 +9:29 WC VroOom (73%) 10. Hoceden 33 15 +9:58 The Mothers of Invention (39%) 11. Vinzoli 13 0 +12:51 Pegasus Cycling (85%) 12. Batistoni 23 7 +13:14 Warner Bros Racing (73%) 13. Mini 11 0 +13:30 Tours.Cycle.Club (85%) 14. Lacroux 16 5 +13:54 Warner Bros Racing (94%) 15. Guivarch 7 0 +14:33 Tours.Cycle.Club (98%) 16. Lampreia 16 0 +14:40 Luptatorii din Rarau (90%) 17. Thomas 6 0 +14:54 Pegasus Cycling (90%) 18. Wavreille 12 0 +15:00 WC VroOom (94%) 19. Eerens 10 0 +15:00 WC VroOom (94%) 20. Thomson 8 0 +15:00 WC VroOom (90%)
An interesting situation. Goorts was going for a stage win in the first stage this week and got it... but he also got way ahead on the GC. The first "fully rested" guy (90% or more fitness) is nearly 14 minutes back.
However there are some "partially rested" riders who are much closer... as close as 4:35.
So... after an unexpected race lead... what do I do? Do I stick with my pre-race plan for the GC (Lacroux... who's at the front of the 90% and higher group in the standings)? Or do I defend Goorts with a low fitness? Or do I try to do both somehow?
Goorts has solid stats... I've used him for GC in races before. So there is a possibility there... but with 64% fitness I'm not sure he could pull it off.
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Post by rarau on Jul 15, 2014 18:00:00 GMT 1
So... after an unexpected race lead... what do I do? Do I stick with my pre-race plan for the GC (Lacroux... who's at the front of the 90% and higher group in the standings)? Or do I defend Goorts with a low fitness? Or do I try to do both somehow?i don't know what to say ... One of 2 of my "fully rested" guy (90% or more fitness) is injured ... 2 have already low fitness all sounds good Debever was play today at 100% and i think he will not have any chance on general standings anymore
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Post by kurtinsc on Jul 18, 2014 12:24:59 GMT 1
Well alright! WB takes their first stage race win of the season in their home race (tour of California).
We've been having a run of good luck lately... maybe we can keep it going through the end of the Giro.
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Post by Mike on Jul 18, 2014 14:00:56 GMT 1
well done
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Post by kurtinsc on Jul 20, 2014 16:49:41 GMT 1
3 stages to go in the Giro, and here's the standings and fitness before the update:
1. Goorts 26 15 1.05:03:46 Warner Bros Racing (58%) 2. Cardei 23 0 +2:32 Luptatorii din Rarau (60%) 3. Echevarria 17 9 +3:06 The Mothers of Invention (51%) 4. Schelstraete 7 0 +4:35 Snake Milano (70%) 5. Adela 12 3 +5:52 Pegasus Cycling (45%) 6. Wavreille 32 11 +6:07 WC VroOom (54%) 7. Pettini 23 13 +7:11 Nattramn (65%... will be 100% after update) 8. Forestieri 13 0 +8:41 Tours.Cycle.Club (65%) 9. Coucke 13 3 +8:55 The Mothers of Invention (50%) 10. Cammaert 12 0 +9:01 Tours.Cycle.Club (80%) 11. Lacroux 21 5 +9:05 Warner Bros Racing (80%) 12. Eerens 30 5 +9:40 WC VroOom (54%) 13. Debever 40 9 +10:09 Nattramn (65%... likely go to 100%) 14. Schiavon 9 0 +10:18 Snake Milano (75%) 15. Martyn 17 3 +10:26 The Mothers of Invention (60%) 16. Berardo 6 0 +10:41 Pegasus Cycling (65%) 17. Peçanha 14 1 +10:43 Snake Milano (75%) 18. Guivarch 11 0 +10:59 Tours.Cycle.Club (87%... huh?) 19. Thomas 12 0 +11:12 Pegasus Cycling (70%) 20. Fidatov 28 1 +11:24 Luptatorii din Rarau (50%)
At this point I'm not even sure how to decide with the fitness levels and time behind who's actually still in contention. The next two stages end with mountain climbs but have a good amount of flat leading up to the finish. Then a time trial.
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Post by evild on Jul 21, 2014 20:46:54 GMT 1
Debever will attack tomorrow, pettini will next thursday. Nobody will be able to follow him since he is at 100% now. Cardei is closest, but lost 8 mins yesterday. He already has 10% less fitness even though he received fitness training and clearly hes not happy at the moment. This tells me that he wont be able to compete. Debever green, pettini mountain. if i was you kurtinsc, i would play goorts in the TT. Natramn's team lacks tt, i know goorts doesnt:-) pettini will be at 65%, thats your chance to win back the time you lost in the mountain stage
dunno what to think bout schelstraete, he has high fitness. But i guess he is just not good enough. The unknown factor for me. As for my wavreille, he is one of the best mountain guys in this giro i think, but too low in fitness to be feared.
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Post by kurtinsc on Jul 21, 2014 23:39:41 GMT 1
The other factor is I have Lacroux who is also at 100%. He's 2 minutes behind Pettini and is probably a better TT rider... but it is a mountain TT which might make Pettini stronger.
Lacroux was supposed to be my GC guy... Goorts was just going for a stage win (which he got) but ended up taking a ton of time in the process (he got 15 minutes on that stage on the peloton... Cardei got 8). Without the huge time differences on that stage you'd be looking at Pettini leading and Lacroux 2 minutes back (which I would have thought gave me a chance coming in).
Still have a lot of options. We'll see what happens after tomorrow.
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Post by kurtinsc on Jul 22, 2014 12:26:42 GMT 1
Well, the low effort attack by Lacroux ended up paying off pretty well. 3rd place, 4 minutes on the Peloton. We'll see what the last two stages hold, but I'm starting to feel optimistic.
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Post by evild on Jul 22, 2014 18:10:26 GMT 1
Interesting to see how natramn is a victim of his own tactic. He saved fitness with pettini, but went on 98% with debever. If he would go 100% and with an extra attacking point, he would have won i guess. All will depend on how many minutes goorts will lose next mountain stage
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Post by evild on Jul 22, 2014 18:11:48 GMT 1
Oh and i guess we will see debever and pettini in the TDF, what do you guys think? :-)
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Post by kurtinsc on Jul 22, 2014 22:40:33 GMT 1
Oh and i guess we will see debever and pettini in the TDF, what do you guys think? :-) I hope so. If he does then he's only got one weekend for Pettini to recover. Even with fitness training he's got to end the Giro at 65% to be at full fitness for the tour. He can't max out both the next stage and the ITT... which means his losses in the TT will probably be significant). I'm feeling okay about Pettini... Cardei is worrying me more at this point. I think(hope) Lacroux catches everyone else between him and Goorts in the GC.
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[09] 3:1
Jul 25, 2014 12:58:54 GMT 1
via mobile
Post by kurtinsc on Jul 25, 2014 12:58:54 GMT 1
Wow, that was close. Lacroux takes it by 13 seconds. That's my first ever GC win in a grand tour... so woo hoo!
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