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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 23, 2013 13:59:11 GMT 1
I'm torn to be honest. Not sure a low effort attack will work... and it might be better to save a high effort attack until a later stage. Then again... there are only 2-3 stages left to try something (3 if you're high skilled in hill... 2 otherwise). Seabra tried today a first time with a 75% attack (?), even with 2 falls he was able to get away from the peloton, but my helpers did their job and Sacre had an easy day in the peloton. 1 down, 4 stages to go .. The falls killed him. Seabra is probably stronger in the hills then most contenders, so my thought was that a low effort attack would have a decent shot at success. Break away on the first hill part, then lengthen the lead at the second (mountain) attack point. The first part worked... broke away easily even with a fall. But then he crashed on the secon and came back to the peloton. If he had avoided falling, he would have at least been with Paivot at the finish if not ahead of him. He's actually got solid secondaries (14/11), so two falls on one stage is a bit suprising. As it is, he's still got plenty of fitness left for another attempt on another stage. Bad luck unfortunately. Next Tuesday will be the big day, unless someone takes a big risk and tries something tomorrow in the hopes that everyone else will be taking it easy for Tuesday. Sacre will be below 80% fitness, the rest of the contenders should be 90% or more (except Blanquet for Forza)
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 24, 2013 14:38:36 GMT 1
You took a bit of a risk with that attack. With your guy ahead, if another team had attacked (with a GC threat) your helpers wouldn't have worked to pull the break back. Worked out perfectly for you (and probably was a minor risk given that the GC guys haven't been attacking on flat stages), but still a bit risky.
And of course I REALLY wish you hadn't... as Garen won the group sprint for second (perhaps because he now has a 5% fitness edge on Godbout). If he could just stay on his bike he'd be a real competitor for the points jersey.
I'm looking at just the first stage win in this tour. Was hoping for more when it started.
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leor16
U23 Developm. Team
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Post by leor16 on Mar 24, 2013 18:48:20 GMT 1
You took a bit of a risk with that attack. With your guy ahead, if another team had attacked (with a GC threat) your helpers wouldn't have worked to pull the break back. Worked out perfectly for you (and probably was a minor risk given that the GC guys haven't been attacking on flat stages), but still a bit risky. And of course I REALLY wish you hadn't... as Garen won the group sprint for second (perhaps because he now has a 5% fitness edge on Godbout). If he could just stay on his bike he'd be a real competitor for the points jersey. I'm looking at just the first stage win in this tour. Was hoping for more when it started. Hmm, maybe it was a risk if a GC-rider had attacked also, but Bruggeman has 12+ flat and I let him attack on 4 different points, so i don't think a lot of GC-riders would have been able to follow him .. In the first 2 years Bruggeman was by far my best rider, he won twice the Tour and almost any flat race, but since the new RE he is just a good helper with high leadership, so I'm very pleased to see him win again
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 25, 2013 4:44:49 GMT 1
You took a bit of a risk with that attack. With your guy ahead, if another team had attacked (with a GC threat) your helpers wouldn't have worked to pull the break back. Worked out perfectly for you (and probably was a minor risk given that the GC guys haven't been attacking on flat stages), but still a bit risky. And of course I REALLY wish you hadn't... as Garen won the group sprint for second (perhaps because he now has a 5% fitness edge on Godbout). If he could just stay on his bike he'd be a real competitor for the points jersey. I'm looking at just the first stage win in this tour. Was hoping for more when it started. Hmm, maybe it was a risk if a GC-rider had attacked also, but Bruggeman has 12+ flat and I let him attack on 4 different points, so i don't think a lot of GC-riders would have been able to follow him .. In the first 2 years Bruggeman was by far my best rider, he won twice the Tour and almost any flat race, but since the new RE he is just a good helper with high leadership, so I'm very pleased to see him win again Would only have been an issue if others had attacked (probably several others)... but it's happened to me before. I've had a race lead, sent another rider on an attack... and ended up losing the GC where if I hadn't attacked and let my helpers work I likely would have held on. Not in a GT, but in the 3-4 day stage races. Hasn't happened this season, but haven't really been in the lead of too many races. Rather I've made late charges and come up just short. Of course I took a risk in the other direction... saving fitness with Seabra. So he's at 99% going into the final 3 stages instead of 95%... maybe that will help. I was probably even more vulnerable to a GC contender attacking.
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 25, 2013 14:24:33 GMT 1
Well, no movement today except for Urkens from Forza falling out of the top group. I got my second stage win and some other high placings on the stage, so I'm pleased about that.
There should be a lot of action tomorrow. While the other jerseys are pretty much locked in, the yellow is wide open. It will be interesting to see what happens on a stage where I expect most teams will be attacking repeatedly.
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leor16
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Post by leor16 on Mar 25, 2013 17:57:51 GMT 1
Well, no movement today except for Urkens from Forza falling out of the top group. I got my second stage win and some other high placings on the stage, so I'm pleased about that. There should be a lot of action tomorrow. While the other jerseys are pretty much locked in, the yellow is wide open. It will be interesting to see what happens on a stage where I expect most teams will be attacking repeatedly. I was expecting an attack of Seabra today .. I'm happy you didn't, he could have easily took Sacre's yellow jersey. In the stage of tomorrow that will be difficult I guess/hope, since I can put all my riders as helper ..
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 25, 2013 19:02:06 GMT 1
Well, no movement today except for Urkens from Forza falling out of the top group. I got my second stage win and some other high placings on the stage, so I'm pleased about that. There should be a lot of action tomorrow. While the other jerseys are pretty much locked in, the yellow is wide open. It will be interesting to see what happens on a stage where I expect most teams will be attacking repeatedly. I was expecting an attack of Seabra today .. I'm happy you didn't, he could have easily took Sacre's yellow jersey. In the stage of tomorrow that will be difficult I guess/hope, since I can put all my riders as helper .. We'll see. I have a feeling EVERYONE will be attacking who is in contention... so it may just be your squad working to pull back attacks. Even if others are pulling back with you... can Sacre at 70% hold on to the peloton with other teams pulling back breaks? Will be interesting. Also... I don't think Seabra could have taken the lead. Bustos at 7-hill could only take a 1:17 lead going at 100%. Perhaps Seabra could have stayed away after attacking on the first hill section (he's got a better flat then Bustos who was caught but made a second successful attack on the last hill part), but we have a lot of flat cyclists in this race who'd be pulling things back. Still... if Bustos got less then 1:30, I'm not sure Seabra could have gotten 50 seconds. I would have preferred the next stage be more like stage 8, with a combination of mountain and hill rather then having all the climbs as mountains... but we'll see. My guys are a bit heavy... so I wouldn't be suprised if their attacks aren't the ones thtat cause your team problems tomorrow... Cosson and Trussart from Kleinbikes may be more problematic for you. Mann might have been my best option if he hadn't fallen and lost 50 seconds on stage 2. That relegated him to a helper role... but he's got the right weight for attacking on mountain stages.
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 26, 2013 13:54:59 GMT 1
Hmm... first attack works and Seabra is with the lead group.
Second attack causes him to fall behind his group. Would he have fell behind anyway on the climb, or does the attack (if it fails) make it more likely to lose contact in that situation? I've had a couple of other times this season where it's seemed like attacking a second time from a break group has caused my rider to lose contact with the break.
Ah well... all that for two seconds.
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Post by kurtinsc on Mar 28, 2013 13:20:48 GMT 1
Congrats on the Tour win to EBH. Took a risk of using a GC rider early fitness wise defended it (to be honest I thought he'd fail on stage 11 due to fitness, but it didn't happen).
In retrospect... I probably should have attacked with Seabra on stage 10 rather then 11... but I was too concerned about having low fitness for stage 11... wasn't sure he could keep up without high fitness.
Still... I can't be too upset. 2nd and 6th overall, 2nd in points, 3rd in the mountains and 3 stage wins. Combine that with a nice sprint win on a pancake race today... It's all good. I'm likely not in the battle for promotion (as it now seems like it might be the old "two teams promote" system instead of reshuffling), but you never know... perhaps I'll have a dominant Vuelta.
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looze
U23 Developm. Team
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Post by looze on Apr 3, 2013 12:24:06 GMT 1
Just missed a first GC win this season But 3 riders in the top 6 is not bad.
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Post by kurtinsc on Apr 3, 2013 14:25:07 GMT 1
Just missed a first GC win this season But 3 riders in the top 6 is not bad. Hey, I feel your pain. I've had a very good season so far, but I've yet to win a GC. Today, my main GC guy fell twice, had a flat and lost 6:44... and finished 4:27 down. With an 8 flat I think he would have kept up otherwise, though I guess finishing with the peloton would have still left him some seconds short of the win. As it is, I haven't won a GC in the past two seasons, though I've taken a lot of stages, 1-day races and other jerseys. Not sure if I'm approaching it wrong or just getting unlucky (or perhaps a bit of both).
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leor16
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Post by leor16 on Apr 3, 2013 16:55:39 GMT 1
Just missed a first GC win this season But 3 riders in the top 6 is not bad. I'm sorry, I think the sprint-skill of Defraine must have been decisive. He is a very all-round rider, but not really superb in 1 thing, for that reason he doesn't starts in so many races. So I'm pleased to see him win the stage and GC today
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Post by kurtinsc on Apr 4, 2013 13:44:47 GMT 1
Impressive showing for EBH today. Top 4 spots and now has a commanding 500 point lead over second place. Given how B-S has approached the larger stage races, I think you're pretty much set for the division win now barring really bad luck to finish the year.
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Post by kurtinsc on Apr 4, 2013 15:35:06 GMT 1
I'm feeling a bit meh about the Vuelta after setting up an initial plan. I have two riders who have to take part due to contracted race days (Epifano and Rumler... and I'll lose them at season end if they get injured too early in the race). The problem is that both are hill/sprint guys who can help a bit in the TTT but otherwise aren't of much use in the vuelta. Their low mountain makes then very weak for both attacks and as helpers.
Because of that, I'm going to have trouble competing for the GC. I have almost no ability to help my top riders stay with the peloton if they are outmatched in the mountains, and no ability to bring back breaks well if mountain guys get away.
I'll see how it plays out a little. I hate that I can't put my most competitive team forward, but not getting those two enough race days early has kind of locked me in to a bad position.
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leor16
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Post by leor16 on Apr 4, 2013 19:27:34 GMT 1
I'm feeling a bit meh about the Vuelta after setting up an initial plan. I have two riders who have to take part due to contracted race days (Epifano and Rumler... and I'll lose them at season end if they get injured too early in the race). The problem is that both are hill/sprint guys who can help a bit in the TTT but otherwise aren't of much use in the vuelta. Their low mountain makes then very weak for both attacks and as helpers. Because of that, I'm going to have trouble competing for the GC. I have almost no ability to help my top riders stay with the peloton if they are outmatched in the mountains, and no ability to bring back breaks well if mountain guys get away. I'll see how it plays out a little. I hate that I can't put my most competitive team forward, but not getting those two enough race days early has kind of locked me in to a bad position. I still have 6 riders who need 1 or more stages this season, one of them is Audenaert who will compete the vuelta, with his 3 on mountain he won't be a great help for the team I guess. So like your riders, his job will be to go @100% on the TTT. But off course the main goal is to win stages with Alarcon or Belmont, and maybe the point jersey Impressive showing for EBH today. Top 4 spots and now has a commanding 500 point lead over second place. Given how B-S has approached the larger stage races, I think you're pretty much set for the division win now barring really bad luck to finish the year. I was impressed myself, I knew Kooijman had a good chance to win the sprint of the first group, but the fact that all my 3 attackers would make it to the finish (even without any other rider) was a total surprise for me.
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